Dawn Staley and South Carolina just barely missed out on the No. 1 overall seed in this year’s NCAA tournament. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
The women’s NCAA tournament selection committee released its bracket on Sunday afternoon, and right away there was a debate at the top.
While that is undoubtedly not the biggest deal, there was still plenty to pick apart in this year’s bracket all the way down to the bottom. The committee also provided us with the opportunity for a great rematch somewhat early on in the tournament, which is always something to be thankful for.
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Here’s a closer look at what the committee got right and wrong.
Going into Selection Sunday, it seemed as if South Carolina had the edge for the No. 1 overall seed.
The reigning national champions were fresh off a blowout win in their conference championship game and looked strong closing out the year. The Gamecocks had won seven straight, all by double digits, and had clearly put a 29-point home loss to UConn behind them.
But the committee opted to go with UCLA instead. And it shouldn’t have.
The Bruins absolutely earned a No. 1 seed in the tournament. That was never in doubt. They went 30-2 and won the Big Ten tournament title with a win over USC. They started the year on a 23-game win streak, too. So the committee gave UCLA the top overall seed for the first time in program history.
The biggest reason for that, they said on ESPN, was two-fold. First, UCLA beat South Carolina by 15 points back in November. While a head-to-head matchup usually does the trick, that was months ago. The second was South Carolina losing by nearly 30 points to UConn at home. UCLA didn’t have a loss that bad.
South Carolina, however, had a league-best 16 Quad 1 wins — three more than UCLA did. The Gamecocks also finished the season much, much stronger. UCLA fell to USC in its regular-season finale, and just barely snuck past Iowa by two points two games prior. South Carolina won each of its final seven games by an average of 22 points.
The Gamecocks should have received the No. 1 overall seed based on the way the two teams closed out the year. This may not matter much in the grand scheme of the tournament, but the committee got this one wrong.
Just like on the men’s side, there was no issue with who the top eight teams are in the women’s NCAA tournament.
The order may be wrong, but UCLA, South Carolina, Texas and USC were the clear No. 1 seeds in the field. We already broke down the first two, and Texas and USC have similar resumes. USC, thanks to a huge season from star JuJu Watkins, went 28-3. Their only bad loss came against unranked Iowa in early February. The Longhorns, despite the bad loss to South Carolina in the SEC championship game, also lost just three times on the season — two of which were to the Gamecocks. These four teams were the only ones in the sport with double-digit Quad 1 wins, and more than earned the top seeds.
The No. 2 seeds were in a similar boat. UConn, searching for its first title in nearly a decade, also has just three losses. TCU, in its first NCAA tournament since 2010, rolled through the Big 12 without any issue whatsoever. If the Horned Frogs can get out of the first two rounds, it will be their deepest run in program history. Duke and NC State, the other two No. 2 seeds, each had eight Quad 1 wins and met in the ACC championship game.
The only other team that could’ve made a case for a No. 2 seed was Notre Dame, but the committee got that right, too. The Irish, after picking up several big wins earlier in the season, lost three of their past five games and largely struggled to close out the year. The other four teams in this group, at least down the stretch, ended the season the right way. The committee got its top eight teams right, even if they were slightly out of order.
To be clear, this is only an issue if the tournament sees all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four. But if that happens — and that’s absolutely possible — we’ll have an issue in Tampa.
The selection committee put USC and UCLA on the same side of the bracket, and then South Carolina and Texas on the other. That would lead to rematches in both semifinal games. While that’s not necessarily an issue at first glance, this wouldn’t just be a singular rematch. It would be the fourth matchup between the two teams this season, and lead to what is essentially just a very good conference game with a trip to the national championship on the line.
A fourth edition of Watkins vs. Lauren Betts wouldn’t be a bad thing. The Bruins, after losing to the Trojans twice in the regular season, finally beat them in the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis. The battle between the two Los Angeles schools has been great, and probably would be again. The SEC edition of that matchup is in the same position. South Carolina, after splitting its regular-season games with Texas, rolled over the Longhorns in the SEC championship game.
If it comes to this, the Final Four should still be incredibly competitive and entertaining. But rematches of games we’ve already seen multiple times is not the point of the NCAA tournament. UCLA vs. USC is a long rivalry that will also last long into the future. South Carolina-Texas is a new SEC rivalry that we’ll get again for years to come now, too.
The committee could have avoided this with a very easy fix. But, here we are.
We could see a rematch between JuJu Watkins and Paige Bueckers in the Elite Eight. (Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images)
Thankfully, we won’t have to wait for Tampa for this potential rematch.
The committee set up a potential battle between UConn and USC in the Elite Eight round on Sunday night, which would be incredible for so many reasons. It would pit Watkins, who could very easily win Player of the Year honors, against Paige Bueckers, who is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the WNBA Draft later this year. The first time these two teams squared off was great, too. Watkins and the Trojans nearly blew an 18-point lead before hanging on to beat the Huskies by just two points on the road in December.
USC isn’t happy with the seeding, either, simply because UConn is in the same bracket.
“I never thought I’d be a one seed and feel disrespected,” coach Lindsay Gottlieb said.
Not to completely overlook the first three rounds, but this is a matchup that fans should want to see. The selection committee did great here.
The Dukes should have been in the tournament, no question about it.
JMU rolled through the Sun Belt with an unblemished record and went 28-5 on the season. While that’s not a Power 5 conference, and the Dukes went 0-3 in Quad 1 games on the year, a 28-win season and a conference title deserves to be celebrated. The Dukes just barely missed out on an automatic bid, too, after they fell to Arkansas State in overtime of the Sun Belt championship game. That snapped a 20-game win streak. They also beat Florida and Villanova in their non-conference slate.
While JMU didn’t deserve a great seed, it deserved to at least be invited to the tournament. The committee could have pushed it down to a play-in spot if they wanted, and we wouldn’t be having this issue. But instead, the Dukes’ undefeated conference record somehow wasn’t enough to get them into the tournament. The committee got this one very wrong.
