Will Kodai Senga’s health hold up for an entire season? That is the pivotal question when it comes to the ghost fork pitcher. He looked great in his regular-season return against the Braves in July 2024, striking out nine over 5 ⅓. Then he got hurt again, sidelining him until the playoffs when he made his second return. His playoff performance wasn’t as strong, allowing three earned runs in both his outings against the Dodgers. For Spring Training, Senga pitched in three games, throwing nine innings and striking out nine. Baseball Reference projects him only to go 5-4, pitching 79 innings for the 2025 season. Because there were so few data points in 2024, below is a breakdown of Senga’s 2023 season. Hopefully, he can emulate this success for the 2025 campaign.
Senga went 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA during his 2023 campaign. He utilized his four-seam fastball the most at a rate of 37%, followed by his cutter at 25%, and his signature pitch, the ghost forkball, 23.8% of the time. The ghost fork calculated a 19% swing and miss rate. It also tallied the lowest average exit velocity at 77 mph. This means that many batters were not able to hit this pitch, and when they did make contact, they did not make great contact. Additionally, the ghost fork registered a 5.6 average launch angle, meaning this pitch induced ground balls at a significant rate.
While the ghost fork was a secondary pitch, clocking in at an average velocity of 83.2 mph, Senga was still able to throw some high-velocity pitches. Both his cutter and fastball were above 90 mph, the latter at almost 96 mph. The drop off from a 95+ mph fastball to a very mobile off-speed ghost fork at 83 mph caused a lot of confusion for batters. Senga had a remarkable 10.9 K/9 during his 2023 campaign. That was 2.2 K/9 better than the league average for 2023 (8.7).
One of Senga’s watch areas is his control. Senga had a 4.17 BB/9 for 2023. Compared to the league average of 3.3, Senga was almost a full walk more per 9 innings pitched. Despite this, he was able to work his way around the walks. He maintained a lower WHIP compared to the league average, 1.22 for Senga compared to the 1.32 league average, and a significantly lower ERA, 2.98 for Senga compared to the 4.26 league average.
When Senga is on the mound, he can produce phenomenally. Last year was a rough one for him, with injuries sidelining him for almost the entirety of the season. Senga had a strong spring; hopefully, he can build upon that for the start of the 2025 season. Look for Senga to have a big bounce-back year, outshining his Baseball Reference projections and solidifying himself as a core component of this Mets rotation.
