MLB Opening Day is finally upon us. Well, technically, it’s opening day for 28 teams after the season started unofficially in Japan last week. But just like every other sport, the futures market is already open for business, and that means we can try to find some value in the win total market.
Similar to the other sports that I model, I take various metrics and create projections for each team. Baseball is such a one-on-one sport (batter vs. pitcher) that I’m able to make a projection for each individual player. These projections are then rolled up into a team projection based on playing time. From there, I can simulate the season 100,000 times to find how many games I expect each team to win.
It’s a long, long season, and with the futures market being up most of the season at your sportsbook of choice, I’d recommend not going too crazy here. There are plenty of opportunities to get involved with a team a month from now, considering the odds shouldn’t shift too drastically like they do, in say, football, from one week to the next. As always, shop around for the best price.
***All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted.
Best 2025 MLB win totals bets
Athletics over 71.5 wins (-115)
They might not have a city attached to their name for this season, but that’s not stopping me from jumping on the A’s bandwagon. My projections aren’t super strong on any AL West team, which means I’m going to flock towards the bottom of the division, which makes me a little queasy. As always with the A’s, you’ll need some no-name guys to come out of nowhere and overperform, but there is enough talent on this roster, particularly the hitters, to see the upside of getting to 75 wins or so. My biggest worry is the starting rotation, as I’m not sure the upside is quite as high. The offense will need to score enough runs to give closer Mason Miller a chance to shut the door.
Atlanta Braves over 93.5 wins (-120) (to win 0.5 units)
I’m half-tempted to say that the Braves will challenge the Dodgers for the best record in the MLB at the end of the year, and I am likely to sprinkle something on them at +700 to do so. The upside of the Phillies and Mets gives me some pause, but it would not shock me to see the Braves get to triple-digit wins this season. Spencer Strider looks to be back by May at the latest, and Ronald Acuña Jr. isn’t that far away. And even without those two, the Braves still have one of the best rosters in the National League. Health will be a key for them — as it is with everyone — but the gap between this Braves squad at full health and the Dodgers isn’t as far as you think.
Los Angeles Angels over 72.5 wins (-110)
While the Dodgers have been rightfully taking all the attention in the city of Los Angeles, I’m actually going to be bullish on the Angels this upcoming season. As I mentioned about the A’s above, I don’t love any team in the AL West, which is leaving some value at the bottom of the division. I’m not excited about backing the Angels, but if they can get a repeat performance from 2024 in 2025 from Tyler Anderson and get quality innings from Jack Kochanowicz, then the rotation isn’t half bad. I don’t think this is a playoff team by any stretch, but mid-70s wins? Sure, why not.
San Francisco Giants over 79.5 wins (-108)
A lot of this lineup’s success will depend on whether Jung Hoo Lee can take the next step forward as a hitter, and if he does, then this Giants offense could be a little frisky. The top half of the lineup isn’t going to feature any stars, but there are some quality hitters to score some runs. As for the pitching staff, there are plenty of questions regarding the starting rotation after Logan Webb, but again, there is upside here. I’m not going to say Justin Verlander has much left in the tank at age 42, but getting out of Houston and into San Francisco should help him as he’s a fly ball pitcher. Also, don’t sleep on Robbie Ray in that ballpark.
St. Louis Cardinals over 75.5 wins (-122)
This is probably my least favorite bet of the bunch. The one thing that I do like is that I’m not overly impressed with any teams in the NL Central, and this is probably why I have value on the Cardinals. I’m a little low on the Brewers and Reds and a little high on the Cardinals. That compounds into a bet on the Cardinals. Maybe I should have faded one of those two to have an under on the card heading into the season, but alas. St. Louis’ success this season will likely be determined by the starting rotation. Sonny Gray has been awesome, but he’s getting up there in age, and after that, they’re hoping for some bounce-back campaigns. Erick Fedde fell off in the second half last season, Miles Mikolas hasn’t been good in some time, and after that, you’ll be depending on some young arms. If the youngsters can take the next step and Fedde returns to his first half of 2024 form, then 80 wins is in the cards.
(Photo of Ronald Acuña Jr.: Justin Berl / Getty Images)
