Updated at 10:07 AM EST
Tesla shares extended their long run of declines in Monday trading after a series of weekend protests targeted the EV maker and CEO Elon Musk and a top analyst on Wall Street reduced his firm’s target price on the stock.
Tesla (TSLA) shares have shed more than $700 billion in market value since their mid-December peak and are now trading firmly south of their Election Day close, amid concern that Musk’s close ties to President Donald Trump and his role in the administration’s cost-cutting effort have eroded the EV maker’s global brand.
European registrations are in free fall, with declines of 76% in Germany, 55% in Italy and nearly 50% in Sweden and with many reports citing Musk’s politics as the principal headwind.
Tesla’s China sales, meanwhile, fell 49% in February, an alarming slump set against broader monthly gains for its domestic rivals. This prompted a rare comment from China Passenger Car Association Secretary General Cui Dongshu, who noted the “unavoidable risk” from Musk’s “personal glory.”
“As a successful businessman, one should be embracing 100% of the market: Treat everyone nicely, and everyone will be nice in return,” Cui said. “But if you look at it in terms of voting, then half of voters will be friendly to you and half of them won’t be.”
In the U.S. Tesla showrooms have become targets for activists protesting Musk’s role in firing tens of thousands of federal employees. Weekend “Tesla Takedown” protests were reported in several major cities including New York and Chicago.
Elon Musk’s efforts to develop government relationships in China haven’t prevented a notable slump in 2025 sales.
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UBS analyst Joseph Spak, who lowered his Tesla price target by $34 to $225 in a note published Monday, sees the early sales declines hitting both first-quarter delivery targets and full-year-profit forecasts.
Tesla demand is softening
“Our UBS Evidence Lab data shows low delivery times for the Model 3 and Model Y (generally within 2 weeks) in key markets, which we believe is indicative of softer demand,” Spak and his team wrote.
Spak sees first-quarter deliveries falling as much as 26% from fourth-quarter 2024 and 5% from the year-earlier first quarter, even with heavier promotions likely providing an end-of-quarter boost.
That boost, however, will add pressure to the carmaker’s overall profit margins. Spak forecast a gross margin of 10.3%, down a full 3 percentage points from fourth-quarter levels and 6 points from a year earlier.
First-quarter earnings, Spak said, are likely to come in at 37 cents a share, “28% below consensus.”
He also cut his 2025 delivery forecast to around 1.7 million units, a 5% decline from a year earlier and around 14% south of Wall Street’s consensus.
Tesla faces more margin pressure
“While we do expect the new ‘lower-cost’ vehicles to help volume, we also believe this may take some demand away from” the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y midsize SUV, “given our belief that this is a derivative off the existing platform,” Spak said.
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“Further, given that this vehicle is expected to be priced $5,000 to $7,000 below a [Model 3 or Model Y] and we don’t believe that amount of cost can come out of the vehicles, these new low-cost vehicles are likely to be lower margin,” he added.
Tesla shares were last marked 8% lower in early Monday trading to change hands at $241.92 each, the lowest since late October.
