The regular season has concluded and the ACC Tournament has been set with the 10-seeded Virginia Tech Hokies playing the 15-seeded California Golden Bears in Charlotte, North Carolina. Both teams finished with a 13-18 regular season record but the Hokies did better in conference play, finishing 8-12 compared to Cal’s 6-14. The Hokies also won the only matchup between the two teams for a 74-71 road victory in Berkeley. Even with the road victory and being a higher seed it is California who enters the game as 2.5-point favorites for the 4:30 PM tip on the ACC Network.
(Photo: Scooter Waller, 247Sports)
Cal is a good rebounding team that has some lethal scoring ability with the talent on the roster. Just like Virginia Tech, the Golden Bears can struggle with turnovers and going through some rough stretches, but there is talent on the roster, especially the wing. The Golden Bears have the length to throw teams off their gameplan and play enough of an up-tempo game that they can get fast break points or have quick shots for teams that can be turnover prone like the Hokies. Cal is also turnover prone, with both teams averaging more turnovers than assists, but the offense shows more consistency than Virginia Tech’s.
Andrej Stojakovic is the leading scorer and the big can score efficiently on all three levels. Andrej does a better job at using his size inside the arc, whether it is a midrange jumper or attacking the basket, but he can lace it from the perimeter if he is given some space. Stojakovic was one of the best scorers in the conference through most of the season before a dip later in conference play. Rytis Petraitis will play next to Andrej and he has a consistent motor and can be found constantly attacking the offensive glass. Petraitis isn’t generally a huge scorer but does throw in a consistent 8 points per game.
Jeremiah Wilkinson and Jovan Blacksher are the two guards that will steal the show with their scoring and overall ability. Wilkinson is averaging about 6 attempted three pointers per game and is a potent scorer at 15.4 points per game. Although it was a quadruple overtime game, Jeremiah is coming off a 36 point outing against Notre Dame in the final game of the regular season. Wilkinson is also good getting in the passing lane and creating turnovers. Blacksher has a similar makeup as a smaller guard that can light it up from the perimeter. Jovan takes on more of the point guard responsibilities but the team as a whole does better creating looks for themselves off the bounce than running through straight motions and getting assists.
Mady Sissoko, Lee Dort, and DJ Campbell round out most of the regular rotation. Sissoko is a big bodied, mobile center that can put pressure on the glass. Virginia Tech is generally a good rebounding team but California gave the Hokies fits last time with Sissoko and Petraitis always in the paint battling for rebounds. Mady isn’t much of a scorer outside of offensive rebounds but that still makes him a potent threat. Dort is in a similar position as a big body who can crash and score off offensive rebounds. Lee is not quite the shot blocker that Mady is but he can alter some looks. Campbell is a guard who likes to take perimeter looks and can be lethal with some impressive games earlier this season. DJ is only hitting 25% from beyond the arc this season but hit 41% last year so if he can hit closer to that number he starts to explode.
(Photo: Reggie Hildred, USA TODAY Sports)
Virginia Tech has shown offensive inconsistencies throughout the season and is coming off two of their worst offensive performances so this game will be a strong litmus tests for how the Hokies close. If Virginia Tech can limit turnovers and keep the Golden Bears off the offensive glass they stand a good chance of defeating Cal for a second time this season but it won’t be an easy game.
Tobi Lawal recently came back from illness and injury and his return should provide a major boost to the Virginia Tech offense. Tobi can hit from the perimeter but does a good job attacking the rim off the pick-and-roll or through offensive rebounds. Mylyjael Poteat is another post who can hold his position in the paint and put pressure on the big men with his strength. When these two can partner together to force the defense to close down in the paint it opens up the offense immeasurably. When the Hokies can’t get an interior presence going it has proven to be very long nights with the lack of pure playmaking from the guards. Patrick Wessler is another center who can put in work on the block and score if he gets the ball in the right spot.
Jaden Schutt and Jaydon Young are two scorers on the wing with the chance for explosive outings. Schutt is averaging a higher total on the season and is the player Mike Young looks to for the offense to get rolling stretch the court. Young is the guy who has come on lately and can close out any gap with his volume scoring ability. Young overtook Schutt in the starting lineup but these two essentially provide the same thing in the grand scheme of the offense, draw attention off screens to stretch the defense and open up lanes if they aren’t going to shoot it. Schutt does a better job moving the ball around while Young is better putting the ball on the floor and attacking the rim.
Ben Hammond and Brandon Rechsteiner man the point guard position with Hammond adept at finding the creases and taking advantage of little spaces and Rechsteiner more of a shooter. Hammond has shown off more of his offensive abilities and is the better defender but his outside shot has limited him in the late game. Both players have greatly struggled with turnovers but Rechsteiner is slightly looser with the ball as he tries harder passes that don’t always come off.
Ben Burnham, Tyler Johnson, and Rodeny Brown are the three that will close out the rotation for the Hokies. Burnham brings a little bit of everything because of his relentless energy. Sometimes that energy gets him into foul trouble but more often than not it helps scrap for extra rebounds and extends plays to try to dig the Hokies out of offensive droughts. Burnham is a very good three point shooter that creates space through his movements off screens. Johnson is the best rebounder and perimeter defender on the Hokies roster and will play a huge role guarding Stojakovic. Tyler can score on smaller guards but in this matchup it might be his perimeter shooting that is more apparent on offense. Brown recently came back from injury and hasn’t gotten much time but is a solid ball handler that can create off the dribble or hit outside shots.
Virginia Tech and Cal are very close when looking at some of the bigger metrics. Cal has better rebounding numbers when you adjust for pace of place but it is a very close margin. The Hokies have bigger turnover issues but also play better defense so some of those numbers even out. Both teams have struggled to put together the season they would have hoped but have the talent to potentially upset Stanford in the next round of the tournament.
Prediction
Virginia Tech is just a hard team to predict. It has been a struggle all season and feels like another struggle for this game. I like some of the matchups and I think the Hokies can take advantage but the turnover problem has exploded and if that side of the Hokies shows itself this afternoon it is going to be a very long game. I do think enough pieces are there for the Hokies to pull this one out and the past two performances were more because of the opposition than a true factor of their own play but this should be a good game. Give me Virginia Tech pulling away late for the first round victory and a date with Stanford.
Final: Virginia Tech 78 California 71
