With Domantas Sabonis’ return in limbo, the Phoenix Suns have a few reasons to not sleep on Zach LaVine and the Sacramento Kings in this matchup. As two teams with similarities in more ways than one, it’s the Kings with the edge if they manage to indeed get Sabonis back in the lineup.
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Mar 14, 2025 • 17:23 ET • 4 min read
The Sacramento Kings are in the midst of a three-game slide, and the Phoenix Suns have lost three of their last four. Neither team has found a way to play efficiently on the offensive end this season, and neither has played well on defense in the last two weeks.
With so many similarities, this should be a great game to end our Friday night. My Kings vs. Suns predictions will focus on why Sacramento could have a surprising edge here even with questions about Domantas Sabonis’ health.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Friday, March 14.
Kings vs Suns prediction
My best bet: Kings moneyline (+135 at bet365)
My analysis
It’s true that the loss of Domantas Sabonis early this month has caused the Sacramento Kings some pain, but it doesn’t mean they’re any different of a team even if their go-to guy on offense is on the sideline.
Sacramento has been fixated on scoring out of the mid-range more than any team this season, and in the last two weeks it’s played without Sabonis it remains the No. 1 team in mid-range shooting frequency by an insane seven percentage points.
The Kings have still managed to rank seventh in field goal percentage from that zone, and now that Zach LaVine has joined the fold this team has gotten hot in a hurry from outside the arc even if it may not take those chances all too often.
The Phoenix Suns have the same exact game plan with second-highest shooting frequency from the mid-range this season and the third-highest in the last two weeks, and while it may not be leading the league in field goal percentage over the last two weeks, it’s No. 1 for the season and sixth in that span.
That’s where this game should be won by the Kings, who have ranked third in defending the mid-range this month and sit atop the league against long middies in particular. Neither team has defended the rim well, and neither has looked good against the 3, but the Suns simply haven’t shot enough times from the arc to make up for the glaring weakness they’ll have here defensively.
There’s a good chance Sabonis will play here on top of all that, which is good news considering when he’s been on the floor opponents have shot almost two points worse from downtown and 5.5 points worse at the rim – meaning it won’t just be on the offensive side of the floor where we’ll see big contributions.
Even if Sabonis doesn’t suit up, you have to like Sacramento’s chances to win this game. Sabonis has been trending towards a return, and if he’s announced as active, the Kings would deserve to be favored in my eyes.
Kings vs Suns same-game parlay
Kings moneylineDeMar DeRozan Over 21.5 points
Kevin Durant Over 2.5 made threes
DeMar DeRozan was limited to just 17 minutes last time out against the Suns due to an injury, but in the first meeting between these two teams this season he finished with 34 points on 14-of-25 shooting. He’s notched 22 or more points in three of his last four despite the fact that he’s taken on lower volume with the acquisition of LaVine, and now he’s in a dream spot against the Suns.
Phoenix has been abysmal against the mid-range shot, with the short middy standing as a giant weakness, and DeRozan has operated as Sacramento’s biggest threat from this zone both in volume and accuracy.
With the Kings playing some solid mid-range defense on the other side of the floor and struggling against the 3, the Suns should be forced to shoot from outside. Kevin Durant will be my target here, considering I’d like to stay away from the excellent 3-point defense of Malik Monk, Zach LaVine and Keon Ellis, and against a more generous DeRozan he should find success from outside.
Durant has yet to play against the Kings this season, but he did go over this number two of four times last year against a similar defense and never went under two made triples. He’s now averaged 6.8 attempts from 3 in his last six games, shooting a blistering 48.8% to give us plenty of confidence here.
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Kings vs Suns odds
Kings vs Suns live odds
Kings vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +2 (-105) | Phoenix -2 (-115)
- Moneyline: Sacramento +120 | Phoenix -140
- Over/Under: Over 234.5 (-110) | Under 234.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kings vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread has continued to move further towards Phoenix, hitting 3.5 on Friday afternoon and quickly snapping back to that number after briefly returning to 3.
- The Suns have taken on 66% of the bets and 81% of the handle wagered on the spread.
- The total initially climbed up as high as 235.5 but has since plummeted to its lowest point at 232.5.
- The Over has accounted for 66% of the tickets and 87% of the money.
Kings vs Suns trend
The Phoenix Suns have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 26 games at home (+13.15 Units / 45% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Suns.
How to watch Kings vs Suns
Location PHX Arena, Phoenix, Arizona Date Friday, 3-14-2025 Tip-off 10:00 p.m. ET TV NBCSCA, KTVK, KPHE
Kings vs Suns latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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