Surprisingly, not enough shots were cranked out in last night’s Stars-Jets affair, leading to a defeat on the Jake Oettinger saves prop. Hopefully you caught today’s earlier Premier League under victory to soften the blow.
We move forward with an over/under on the hardwood for Saturday that also happens to be the final game from the NBA slate tonight — at 9 p.m. EDT, to be specific.
It’s a matchup that should bring about a healthy amount of scoring, with the Denver Nuggets hosting the team that allows more points per game (120.6) than anyone else: the Washington Wizards.
For one, Denver is among the league’s highest-scoring clubs, generating 121.2 points per night to rank third in the NBA behind the Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies. Given the Nuggets’ star power all over their roster, this should be academic.
Nikola Jokic is having another sensational MVP-caliber campaign, and one major component of that is his scoring. He sits third in the NBA with 29 points per game — which would actually be a career high if his average concludes around there at season’s end. Jokic’s previous best such mark was 27.1 points a few years ago.
Underdog Fantasy
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ParlayPlay
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FanDuel Fantasy
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Overall, the Nuggets have six players in double figures on a nightly basis. Jamal Murray is second at 21.5 points, while Michael Porter Jr. trails right behind him, averaging 18.2.
Denver sports a cohesive group that’s mostly been together for a while — they won an NBA title not too long ago, after all — so it should be expected when they score in bunches. Playing opposite a lousy Wizards defense can only facilitate that further.
Meanwhile, Washington is on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of team success, owning the worst record in the Association (14-52). This team, however, can be a fun one to watch.
While the defense is ultimately the reason for its shortcomings in the standings this year, the Wizards do have the potential for an explosion on the scoreboard on any given night.
Former Golden State Warrior Jordan Poole comes with an All-Star ceiling and has put that on full display with his 21.2 points per game to lead the club. He’s undoubtedly one of the better outside shooters in the league, as evidenced by his 3.5 three-pointers made per game. That mark ranks him tied for seventh among all players.
At the trade deadline, Washington dealt Kyle Kuzma — who was second on the team in scoring — but bringing back former All-Star Khris Middleton only boosts their potential with the three ball.
Rookie of the Year candidate Alexandre Sarr is enjoying a nice freshman showing, with 11.9 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Bilal Coulibaly and Malcolm Brogdon can put the ball in the hoop as well.
Now with the total being so high at 240.5, I’m opting to pair the over with what should be an automatic prop from another bout as a way to finesse eight additional points in our favor. Look at tonight’s Knicks-Warriors showdown on ABC and you’ll notice there’s a SGP (same-game parlay) for both Karl-Anthony Towns and Steph Curry to simply churn out 15 points.
Pick: Towns/Curry Both Over 14.5, Wizards/Nuggets Over 232.5 (-140 parlay, FanDuel)
NBA Betting Record: 20-15, +2.29 units
Over/Unders: 6-5
Everything Else: 14-10
Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.
Follow me @MattZylbert on Twitter/X for potentially more picks added there.
Underdog Fantasy
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ParlayPlay
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FanDuel Fantasy
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