While Andreeva has worked hard to pack on muscle and add some punch to her game, it’s clear that Sabalenka still has the ability to push her around—and bully her a bit. In WTA-level matches, Sabalenka is now 4-1 in five career meetings with Andreeva, and most of those matches were completely lopsided. In Madrid, in 2023, Sabalenka won 6-3, 6-1 in an hour and 13 minutes. A year later, in that same tournament, Sabalenka beat her 6-1, 6-4 in an hour and 20 minutes. Andreeva did get on the board when the two met at the French Open a month later, winning 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-4. However, we saw these two play earlier this season, and the results weren’t pretty. Sabalenka beat Andreeva 6-3, 6-2 in Brisbane. She then followed that up with a 6-1, 6-2 win over Andreeva at the Australian Open.

Read more: Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Where to Watch, Indian Wells Preview, Betting Odds

The slower conditions in Indian Wells definitely help Andreeva out a little. It makes this play more like a slower clay-court match than a hard-court match. However, I’m still not sure that will be enough for the 17-year-old to overcome Sabalenka. The world No. 1 is just going to pound the ball all over the court. And while Andreeva might be able to track a lot of those shots down, I think we’re going to see a lot of those shots coming Sabalenka’s way with very little pace. They’ll also be shorter in the court. That will allow Sabalenka to come up and put them away.