INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — Mirra Andreeva beat Aryna Sabalenka 2-6, 6-4, 6-3 in the Indian Wells women’s singles final Sunday.
The No. 9 seed prevailed over the top seed in an at-times nail-biting match ultimately decided by Andreeva’s poise, Sabalenka’s changing fortunes at the net and a remarkable break-point save. It is Andreeva’s second successive WTA 1,000 title in a remarkable 2025, which has taken her into the top 10 and sent a signal to the WTA Tour that she is a force to be reckoned with.
The Athletic’s tennis writers, Charlie Eccleshare and Matt Futterman, analyze the final and what it means for tennis.
How did Andreeva’s break-point record against Sabalenka affect her?
There are two ways to interpret missed break points.
Glass half-full: A player knows they are putting pressure on their opponent. Keep at it and eventually they will get one.
Glass half-empty: They blew their chance, and might not get another one.
The first looks forward. The other looks back.
Andreeva appeared to dig herself a hole in the third game of the match by getting stuck in the half-empty mindset. She worked to create four chances to grab an early lead on the world No. 1, who had come out shaky and nervous. Sabalenka was missing on big strokes, her legs not finding the next gear.
Andreeva was on the front foot, and when she had a meatball second serve to take a cut at for the service break, she took it. She tried to knife a backhand down the line — the shot that had carried her through this tournament. She mishit it just wide and let out a yell. It was her 13th break-point chance against Sabalenka in 2025; she had squandered all of them.
Tennis, though, is about what comes next and about how players react to adversity. Andreeva didn’t react well. From there, her strokes became loose and the errors started to float in. A bad drop shot allowed Sabalenka to stuff a winner that caused some pain. Sabalenka, nine years Andreeva’s senior at 26, could see what was happening and came alive.
She won 11 of 12 points, including breaking Andreeva to love in the game after the teenager had missed her chances. The whole stretch lasted about four minutes, but it was all Sabalenka needed to take control of the first set.
By the time Andreeva did break Sabalenka’s serve in the third game of the second set, she had gone 0-18. The 19th time proved the charm.
Matt Futterman
How did Andreeva recover in the second set?
If the first set hinged on the break points Andreeva missed, the second was decided by one she saved.
Up 3-2, having finally broken the Sabalenka serve after taking her eighth break point of the day, it looked as though Andreeva was about to be reeled back in. But facing a second break point of the game, the 17-year-old produced one of the most extraordinary shots of the year so far — especially given what was at stake.
Sabalenka thought she had the point won when she hit an angled forehand drop shot with so much sidespin that Andreeva was taken halfway into the tramlines. Yet she somehow not only retrieved the ball, but produced an even more devastating angle of her own, sending the ball across the court and onto the outside edge of the line as a disbelieving Sabalenka watched it travel past her, almost in stages.
MIRRA ANDREEVA WHAT A GETTTT 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XduLnMoZFT
— Bastien Fachan (@BastienFachan) March 16, 2025
Andreeva was developing a taste for the spectacular, and produced a string of superb drop shots as she closed the set out. There were two in the space of a few points to hold for 5-3, taking away Sabalenka’s rhythm by keeping her guessing.
It’s a pretty frazzling combination when your opponent can produce drop-shot winners out of nothing and chase down yours from almost off the court. Even for a world No. 1.
Charlie Eccleshare
How did Sabalenka blunt one of Andreeva’s best defenses?
It’s often forgotten that Sabalenka is a former doubles world No. 1 and a two-time Grand Slam doubles champion, but when she is up at the net swatting away volleys, it makes sense.
Sabalenka’s dominance from the baseline is such that she rarely needs to enter the forecourt, but the variety she has added to her game in the past year has made her an even more formidable opponent, and facing a player of Andreeva’s caliber requires the world No. 1 to reach a little deeper into her toolbox.
The first-set scoreline was comfortable in the end, but it was Andreeva making the early running and Sabalenka sensed that simply blasting the ball from the back of the court probably wasn’t going to cut it today. During her runs to the title in Dubai and the final here in California, Andreeva had showcased her incredible forehand-slice squash shot, which buys her time on points and can create problems when it bounces, skidding and curving through the court.
In response, Sabalenka started mixing things up and taking the ball out of the air before it became a problem. Facing the first of four break points serving at 1-1, she knifed a low backhand volley for a winner to keep Andreeva at bay,
Sabalenka saved the second one after setting the point up with a big drive volley, and in her next service game, a successful serve-volley play at 15-15 took Andreeva by surprise.
A half-volley winner a couple of games later underlined how well Sabalenka seemed to be feeling the ball. She rammed that home by earning a first set point at 5-2 on Andreeva’s serve with a feathered backhand drop shot.
Sabalenka hit a few more excellent volleys in the second and third sets but was finding it harder to get to the net to execute them. Andreeva started picking her opponent’s kick serves better, taking them out of the air and rushing the world No.1; she also used moon balls to good effect to keep Sabalenka penned on the baseline.
Charlie Eccleshare
Why Andreeva’s tennis has sent shockwaves through the WTA Tour
Regardless of Sunday’s result, Andreeva has sent shivers through the tennis world with her performances over the past month.
In Dubai, she became the youngest winner of a WTA 1,000-level tournament — the tier just below the Grand Slams — since the format started in 2009. She is the youngest women’s player to appear in the final at Indian Wells since Kim Clijsters, who was also 17, in 2001.
Those are pretty astounding notches to have on the belt, especially for a player who seems so far away from being a complete product. There’s little doubt she can get much stronger in every department and she is already inside the WTA top 10. Andreeva is now hitting 126mph first serves that have even surprised her, adding the ability to dictate and create aggressive situations from all over the court to her already formidable variety and defense.
She’s learning how to use her creativity, too. Her coach, Conchita Martinez, said this week that Andreeva could barely hit a slice backhand when they started working together last spring.
And then there’s her brain, which pivots between maturity and frazzle sometimes from game to game, but has carried her over so many lines already in 2025. She’s just learning how to steady it. When that becomes rote, watch out. She hasn’t done this in a Grand Slam yet, but there’s no reason to think she can’t.
As Sabalenka said in a news conference the other day: “I’m 26, and 27 this year, and she’s 17 and is just two years older than my sister. I look at my sister as a kid, you know, I remember her being this little baby. So I look at Mirra and think, ‘Oh, my god, I’m so old.’
“Yeah, that’s just crazy.”
Matt Futterman
How did Andreeva take control of the match?
Andreeva got the decisive break in the third game of the final set, with two killer backhands that could not have been more different. That was fitting, because her backhand — along with a newly-dangerous serve — has been the real difference-maker for her the past 10 days.
On the first, to get the break point chance, Andreeva stepped in and pummelled a weak defensive shot from Sabalenka for a winner. The second might not have been as searing as some of her hot-shots down the line the past week, but it showed something else: how effective Andreeva has become at taking in information and putting it to work.
In Sunday’s first set, Andreeva missed a break-point chance on a soft second serve to her backhand by going for the winner down the line. This time, she spun back the kick serve cross-court. The shot caught Sabalenka off-guard. She appeared to be leaning the other way, expecting Andreeva to do what she had done before. Andreeva chose the safer but, under the circumstances, more effective option. Sabalenka couldn’t get her feet set to get the right stroke on the ball.
It was Andreeva’s second break of serve in the third set. She’d given the first one back immediately. She wasn’t going to let that happen again.
Matt Futterman
Did Sabalenka let Andreeva cruise through the final set too easily?
Any 17-year-old tennis player closing in on the most significant title of their career is going to get nervous at some point, even if they have an otherworldly temperament like Andreeva does.
What players need when they are nervous are a few gifts from their opponent, but few would dare expect to get them from a three-time singles Grand Slam champion and world No. 1. Yet in the deciding set of Sunday’s final though, Sabalenka kept on obliging.
It was understandable that the Belarusian was growing frustrated with her opponent’s exceptional defense, but it was still striking to see how often it was Sabalenka who was snatching at shots and seemingly not being patient enough to wait for an appropriate moment to strike, rather than her teenage opponent. Too often, she sent wild shots long on the first or third points of Andreeva’s service games, giving her a foothold or letting her off the hook.
Over on the other side of the net, Andreeva appeared more zen than at any other stage of the match, seemingly feeding off Sabalenka’s failure to really test her nerve at the clutch moments.
It felt fitting that Sabalenka checked out of a rally and hit a wild forehand to give up two championship points. Andreeva gratefully accepted the gift with a forehand winner on the very next point.
Charlie Eccleshare
What did Mirra Andreeva say after the final?
“I know I was, as you like to say, a little brat a little bit in the morning, just because I was super-nervous,” Andreeva said on court. “I don’t think I would be here without you (Martinez, her coach), so thank you for being by my side. I would like to thank myself for fighting until the end and for always believing in me,” she said.
In her news conference, Andreeva said: “I didn’t feel relaxed. The whole match I felt super nervous. After the first set, I just realized that what I do now, it doesn’t work, so I have to change something.
In the second set, I tried to play a little bit more aggressive. I didn’t try to over-hit her, because I don’t think anyone can over-hit Aryna, because she’s super-powerful player.
I tried to really create something to make her uncomfortable, and, you know, point by point, game by game, I managed to do that.”
What did Aryna Sabalenka say after the final?
“I have a love-hate relationship with this place. I’ll just put this trophy on top of another one and pretend it’s going to be a trophy for winning,” Sabalenka said on court. “Mirra, congrats on an incredible run. Great tournament, great tennis. If I had the same team you had at this age, I probably would be a better player right now.”
In her news conference, Sabalenka said: “Today I was just too p—-d with myself.
I should have just thrown that aggression on that side instead of being too hard on myself. I wasn’t really caring about what she was doing. I knew what she was going to do, and nothing really surprised me. It’s more just like about me controlling my anger a little bit better.
“I think it was totally me against me, and I just let her play the way she played at the end of the match.”
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(Top photo: Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images)
