It always takes a little while to get a grip on the 68 teams that are in the bracket, but here are some of our initial thoughts.
First, three teams we didn’t want to see were shipped elsewhere: Maryland, UConn and St. John’s.
We think Duke would be favored against all three, but there are reasons whey we don’t want to face any of them until absolutely necessary.
- Maryland because the fans carry a deep grudge and who wants to deal with those people at this point? If they meet, they meet – in the Final Four.
- UConn because it seems clear that Danny Hurley has some personal psychological issues with Duke he hasn’t yet worked through. Plus Bobby would pull for UConn and that would be kind of strange.
- Rick Pitino, because you know he’d love to tag Duke in the tournament. That 1992 shadow is long and hard for anyone affiliated with Kentucky to escape.
Having said that, the East looks tough. Mississipi State is tough and Sean Padilla knows Duke well – but not as well as Jeremy Roach, who plays for Baylor now. We’d rather not pull against Roach, either.
Oregon and Liberty we don’t have a feel for yet so we’ll come back to that.
But we could see Caleb Love and Arizona and we’ve had about enough of Caleb Love.
On the bottom half of the East, BYU is really good and Ryan Odom’s VCU is solid too. Wisconsin is lurking and who would willingly play St. Mary’s? Finally, Alabama is a load though we aren’t up to speed on Robert Morris yet. However, they did knock off Kentucky a few years ago in the NIT, so why should they be scared?
Upsets are not new to them.
In the Midwest, #1 Houston is too sharp and too good to fall to #16 SIUE. And while #8 Gonzaga is off its usual standards, Mark Few is an excellent and experienced tournament coach. The Zags will give #9 Georgia the Ziggy.
#5 Clemson and #12 McNeese State is really intriguing. We love the heart the Tigers show but Will Wade, whatever his other faults, can certainly coach. We’ll stay ACC here.
Man Mountain Zach Edey made it nearly impossible to beat #4Purdue the last couple of years but he’s gone. High Point has done some amazing things under Alan Huss. He’s hungry and he’s done an interesting apprenticeship. We’ll roll the dice and take High Point in an upset.
#6 Illinois got blistered by Duke in New York in February, but injuries and illness made continuity impossible. They should prevail in their opener, whether it’s Texas or Xavier.
Is anyone taking #14 Troy over #3 Kentucky? The Wildcats have exploitable issues but it won’t be Troy doing it.
#7 UCLA and #10 Utah State will play in Lexington and we have no feel for that one yet at all. However, the winner will get the winner of #2 Tennessee and #15 Wofford and while Tennessee can beat Tennessee, we’re not sure Wofford can. That pod is in Lexingon, by the way, and that could be a hostile environment for the Vols – in round two. It won’t matter in round one.
In the South, #1 Auburn has struggled late but they’re not going to lose to a 16 seed.
Louisville gets Creighton in the 8-9 game and we think the Card will win.
Michigan got the 5th seed and while #12 UC San Diego is a bit of wild card, they are from all we understand very good. We’ll have to look at that one more closely.
We could see #13 Yale taking out #4 Texas A&M, particularly since the Aggies shoot poorly and Yale is much more physical than people realize.
#6 Ole Miss is coached by Chris Beard and that tilts us to take the Rebels over either #11 candidate, UNC or San Diego State. However, San Diego State beat Houston earlier.
Injuries are really hurting #3 Iowa State right now but they should get through #14 Lipscomb.
Here’s a weird fact: #7 Marquette’s Shaka Smart got VCU to the Final Four in 2012, but since then has only gotten as far as the Sweet 16 once. We’ll have to look at #10 New Mexico more before getting a feel for that game.
#2 Michigan State should blow by #15 Bryant obviously.
And there’s no way Florida, #1 in the West, is losing to #16 Norfolk State.
#8 UConn is struggling and Hurley doesn’t seem happy with his team, and he says he expects most of them to transfer. It’s a long way from back to back. As of now, we like #9 Oklahoma here.
Former Duke and Louisville assistant Nolan Smith landed on his feet at #5 Memphis, which seems unusually stable for a Penny Hardaway team. However for our money, #12 Colorado State’s Nikko Mevded is a better coach. We’ve followed him since he was at Furman. We’ll go with CSU here, at least for now.
Sometimes you have to trust your gut and there’s no rationale here. Indeed, it might be wishful thinking, but if it is, we wish #13 Grand Canyon would knock # 4 Maryland out.
Seriously though, Bryce Drew is a heck of a coach and the ‘Lopes are probably underrated. Plus Maryland is flying to Seattle to play. That won’t help Memphis either, come to think of it.
Consider this: how many teams in the field have championship experience? Okay, now ask the follow up: how many coaches in this year’s field have won back-to-back titles?
If you said UConn, you’re right, but guess who else does?
Ben McCollum of #11 Drake. We’re not sure how many of his players were on those teams, but he brought the core of his team to Drake with him. Missouri may not have former Blue Devil Mark Mitchell due to a knee injury. We’ll take the Bulldogs here.
Over the years, #14 UNCW has been dangerous. They almost knocked off Maryland when they were defending national champions and only a late Drew Nicholas shot saved the Terps. Could they knock off #3 Texas Tech? We’ll have to read more before we have an opinion there.
Kansas and Arkansas are the #7 and #10 seeds and both have had poor years, at least by the standards of Bill Self and John Calipari. We like Kansas but if Arkansas wins, then we see Calipari and Rick Pitino in the second round, and in Providence, too. Wow!
And yes, St. John’s will surely beat Bryant – like a drum.
It’s possible we missed someone here but if we did, none of this is final. Check back in for more refined takes soon.
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