The Big 12 tournament keeps rolling along, and one of the more intriguing games on the Thursday quarterfinal slate is a battle between the Baylor Bears and Texas Tech Red Raiders. Baylor has been a team that has largely failed to meet expectations this season, but the Bears are coming off their best game in quite a while, dispatching a Kansas State team that was playing well and had plenty of crowd support in Kansas City. On the other side, Texas Tech has established itself as a clear top 8 team since the turn of the calendar year (5th at KenPom, 6th at Barttorvik), and a healthy Red Raiders team can compete with any unit in the country. The Red Raiders are my pick to win the Big 12 title, and that should start with a win and cover over Baylor on Thursday.
Texas Tech is a team that can generate easy offense and also has the capability to hit tough shots, which is a major key against the best defenses in this league. However, unlike Houston, Kansas or Iowa State, this Baylor defense is far from one of the better units in the nation. The Red Raiders offense is one that doesn’t turn the ball over much, and it also thrives against defenses that don’t guard the 3-point arc very well. It just so happens that Baylor has really struggled in that departments this season, as the Bears are ranked 237th in 3-point rate allowed and 251st in 3-point percentage defense (Barttorvik). It’s also worth mentioning that Baylor’s defense is 202nd in free-throw rate allowed, and we can expect the Red Raiders to get to the line in this game and potentially even get a few favorable calls down the stretch, as favorites sometimes do. It’s worth pointing out that while Baylor has plenty of talent, the Bears are not the same team away from Waco, ranking 361st in the away-from-home metric per Haslametrics. Ultimately, the Red Raiders should be too much for a Bears team that isn’t among the best this conference has to offer.
Baylor vs Texas Tech prediction: Texas Tech -6 available at time of publishing. Playable to -6.5
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