A slight chance of strong thunderstorms exists across South Texas Sunday evening and night.
LISA KRANTZ/San Antonio Express-News
This weekend will start a lot like how the past couple of weeks have gone: South Texas temperatures will be significantly above average, and rain chances will be almost nonexistent.
Changes are coming, though, after Saturday. Gulf moisture will be increasing Sunday, and when a weak cold front slides into the region by Sunday night, it could actually help spark a few thunderstorms across parts of Central, South, and East Texas. Here’s what you can expect.
Thanks to southerly winds across the area, morning temperatures will be more mild today than they were Thursday and Friday. San Antonio temps will hover in the mid-50s between 5 and 8 a.m., rising steadily after sunrise. Temps will already be in the upper 70s by noon.
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Shown are expected high temperatures across South Texas on Saturday. Many areas, from San Antonio to Houston, will see temps in the lower to mid-80s.
Pivotal Weather
San Antonio daytime temps will top out in the mid- to upper 80s, likely around 87 degrees. Mostly sunny skies are expected to continue, and no rain chances are expected across the entire state. Winds will be breezy, coming in from the south at 15 mph with some gusts up to 25 mph.
Atmospheric moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to stream into the area Sunday, resulting in more clouds for South Texas. Temperatures will fall short of the previous day’s high by a couple of degrees, but San Antonio will stay warm, topping out in the mid-80s.
Storm chances: The more interesting weather arrives by Sunday night, as a weak cold front approaches from the north. This front will not bring a significant drop in temperatures, but as it interacts with the moisture-rich air over Texas, scattered thunderstorms will form.
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Shown are CAPE values, which depicts how unstable the atmosphere is expected to be. CAPE is expected to be high across South and East Texas on Sunday, signaling that storms could intensify quickly after getting started.
WeatherBell
The atmosphere will be unstable, so any storm that develops could become strong to severe, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts.
The highest chances of storms will be from Central into East Texas, including cities like Waco, College Station, Lufkin and Nacogdoches. In South Texas, isolated to scattered storms are expected around San Antonio from 6 p.m. through the overnight hours. Overall rain chances are only about 20%, though, so 80% of us will likely stay dry.
Warm weather will continue as we push into the new work week. Monday’s afternoon temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s with a small chance (10-20%) of an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon. By Tuesday, mostly sunny skies are expected as highs rise to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
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Shown are potential rainfall totals through Friday in far South Texas, according to the National Blend of Models.
Pivotal Weather
Low atmospheric pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to move over Baja California by Wednesday. As the weather system pushes slowly eastward, it’s counterclockwise rotation will help bring moisture and significant rain chances into South Texas for the second half of the week.
Showers and storms will be possible starting late Wednesday, but the highest chances (40-50%) are expected Thursday and Friday. While forecast rainfall totals are not pinned down yet, the National Blend of Models estimates that San Antonio could receive 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain through the end of the week. If that were to happen, it would benefit our drought-stricken region.
