Midway through President Trump’s first 100 days, it appears that his honeymoon period is beginning to wane.
Indeed, a slew of new polls show that Trump’s approval rating has steadily declined amid a fast-paced and turbulent rollout of his economic agenda, and the Department of Government Efficiency’s efforts to cut government costs.
According to the RealClearPolitics poll tracker, Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings are currently tied at 48 percent apiece.
During the president’s first week in office, his net approval was plus 7 (51 percent vs. 44 percent) per RealClearPolitics, suggesting that as uncertainty grows over the economy, foreign policy, and wholesale cuts to government spending, Trump’s approval may continue to take a hit.
To be sure, Trump is not even two months into a four-year term. There is plenty of time for these numbers to improve, especially if the administration finds its footing.
Moreover, individual polls such as Emerson’s most recent survey show that although Trump’s approval has declined from plus 8 at the start of his term to plus 2 (47 percent to 45 percent), it nevertheless remains positive.
In that same vein, voters continue to support Trump’s approach to immigration, with approval at plus-8 (48 percent to 40 percent).
That said, it is clear that Americans’ concerns over the economy, which are being exacerbated with the whipsaw implementation and withdrawal of tariffs, are weighing on his overall numbers.
Put another way, the administration is moving too fast to put its agenda into practice, leaving Americans and financial markets virtually no time to absorb significant policy changes.
The aforementioned Emerson poll shows that a plurality (48 percent) of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 37 percent who approve.
Other polls have suggested even higher levels of discontent. Recent polling by the Washington Post indicated that a majority (55 percent) of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Similarly, very few object to the concept behind DOGE and the need to rein in government spending. But as with the tariffs, the way those cuts are being implemented gives the impression of “slash and burn” without any consideration as to the impact of widespread cuts.
Despite variations in individual polls, the data point to a clear trend of declining approval ratings for the president and his administration.
To that end, the chaotic nature of Trump’s term thus far has unsettled Americans and financial markets, with each day bringing new headlines that introduce high levels of volatility and uncertainty.
For example, within the span of one week, Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have contradicted each other over tariffs on Mexico and Canada, giving neither the public nor businesses a chance to adjust.
As the Wall Street Journal noted, the administration’s “mixed messaging” is even “spooking” Trump’s own economic advisors. If White House officials are confused, it stands to reason that the American people would be at best confused, and at worst, panicked.
All of this has contributed to a considerable decline in the stock market — the S&P 500 is down nearly 10 percent since Trump took office — which has bled into Americans’ overall sentiment.
One week into Trump’s second term, Americans were virtually split on whether they felt the economy was getting worse (37 percent) or was staying roughly the same (35 percent) per Economist/YouGov polling.
However, barely six weeks later, nearly one-half (48 percent) of Americans now say the economy is getting worse, while one-quarter (26 percent) said it is staying the same.
It’s true that the stock market is not the economy, but it is the most visible indicator of economic health, and the “wealth effect” felt by a rapidly declining market can sour Americans’ moods.
Having been elected largely on the back of economic concerns and with a mandate to defeat inflation, the administration now seems to be laying the groundwork for an economic recession.
Asked whether he worried about a possible recession due to tariff policies, Trump refused to rule out the possibility, further stoking pessimism and concern.
It bears repeating that Trump’s term is extremely young, and it is entirely possible that in the long term, his trade policies will strengthen the economy.
During Trump’s first term, his tariff threats led to the 2018 mini-crash in the markets, but they eventually recovered and the S&P 500 notched a more than 60 percent return for the entire term.
Ultimately, for Trump to reverse his declining numbers, the administration must do a better job of articulating just how their policies will spur economic growth and lower costs, and take caution when implementing these policies.
Until and unless they do so, chaos and uncertainty will reinforce voters’ pessimism and concern, potentially costing Republicans the House of Representatives next year.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”
