The SEC Tournament title game is finally here.
Tennessee and Florida will face off on Sunday afternoon in Nashville to crown an SEC Tournament champion. The Vols got here by beating Texas and Auburn. Florida’s path included wins over Mizzou and Alabama.
Tennessee and Florida met twice during the regular season, splitting the series. Neither game was particularly close. The Gators won by 30 in Gainesville and the Vols won by 20 in Knoxville. In both cases, the losing team failed to approach 50 points.
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Alex Condon averages 8.4 rebounds per game during SEC play, so this projection seems a tad low. It’s likely a bit lower because the Vols play at a slow pace, thus limiting the number of missed shots for Condon to vacuum up. But Condon is excellent on the glass on both ends and has hauled in at least 8 rebounds in 6 of his last 9 games and in 20 out of 30 contests overall this season.
Tennessee was middle-of-the-road in the SEC in rebounding rate this season. The Vols were also just 7th in effective field goal percentage during league play, so there should be enough work for Condon on the defensive glass to get to 8 rebounds.
Walter Clayton Jr. is one of the most talented scorers in the country, but Tennessee has been a tough matchup for him this season. Even in the game that Florida won, Clayton went 3-for-10 from the field and 1-for-6 from beyond the arc. He also had 10 points on 13 shots in a blowout loss to the Vols earlier this season. Tennessee has one of the best defenses in the country, and it has made Clayton extremely inefficient this year in a way that virtually no one else has.
Clayton averages 2.8 makes from downtown per game (in SEC play) and is going up against the No. 1 3-point percentage defense in the entire country. The Vols are elite defensively on the perimeter and their slow pace means Clayton might take fewer 3-pointers than normal, too.
Chaz Lanier has been on a heater lately. He’s averaging almost 20 points a night over his last 8 games, a stretch that includes 6 contests where he’s scored 16 or more. But Lanier is shooting over 60% from 2-point range during that time — something he really struggled to do in 2 previous meetings against this elite Florida defense. Lanier went just 3-for-12 from inside the arc against UF this season, which is a trend I expect will continue on Sunday.
Lanier is a good enough shooter that he could score 16+ on 3-point shots alone. It’s certainly within the range of possible outcomes. He took 9 3-point attempts in both of Tennessee’s previous matchups with Florida this year. He made 6 of those 18 tries — with 5 coming in 1 game alone — but never got it going from inside the arc. I’m willing to risk a hot-shooting night from 3-point range given his previous issues against this Gators’ defense on the interior. Lanier is also in a huge funk at the foul line (under 45% in his last 6 games) so points may not be available there either.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
