President Donald Trump promised to lower inflation starting on Day One in the White House. The latest data suggests that price hikes may be cooling off, but it’s unclear whether that trend will persist in the face of tariffs and other economic policy changes.
Americans, meanwhile, are feeling the pinch.
In February, the first full month of Trump’s second term, inflation as measured by the consumer price index rose at an annual rate of 2.8%, coming in below forecasts.
“It’s worth remembering that this may be the calm CPI report before the storm,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “Not only does the (Federal Reserve) need to wait for tariff policy clarity, but once tariff implementation arrives it is likely to bring at least some price increases, with the inflation picture potentially getting uglier as the months go on.”
The inflation Americans have faced in recent years is unlike anything seen in decades. But when COVID-19 struck in early 2020, a combination of lockdowns, stimulus checks, reopening and supply chain issues sent prices skyrocketing.
By the summer of 2022, a year and a half into Joe Biden’s presidency, inflation was raging and bedeviled the economy. It dropped significantly before the 2024 presidential election, but remained higher than pre-pandemic levels. Candidate Trump made high grocery and gas prices a cornerstone of his campaign.
“Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again,” he said at an August campaign rally in Bozeman, Montana.
“Groceries, cars – everything,” he said the next month in Erie, Pennsylvania. “We’re going to get the prices down.”
Now Trump is in the White House, and inflation remains an issue. Some economists fear Trump’s suite of tariffs on America’s trading partners will lead to even higher costs.
“He was elected to lower prices but has spent all his time focused on giving billionaires like Elon Musk tax cuts,” said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive economics think tank. “The tariffs will raise prices for lower income families.”
Dan Ridgeway, a 73-year-old information technology worker who lives in Loudoun County, Virginia, says he has noticed grocery store prices on brand items, including eggs, “definitely going up.”
“The tariff thing, I don’t think it’s the answer,” he adds. “Prices have not been addressed, period, at this point. As far as those things that affect families in general, people that talk about things around the dinner table, those things are not being addressed.”
The U.S. News inflation tracker below shows how prices have risen and will continue to reflect the progress (or lack thereof) of the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration in taming inflation.
Restaurants vs. Grocery Stores – Which Is More Expensive?
Grocery prices in particular skyrocketed in the summer of 2022. And though the rate of inflation has largely slowed down since, American shoppers are still feeling the effects. As of February, prices for groceries and eating out are rising at a 2.6% annual pace.
Egg prices, meanwhile, are the highest they’ve been in recent memory, driven by a combination of bird flu outbreaks and increased production costs.
Chrissy LeBlanc of Odessa, Florida, tells U.S. News Money that higher prices at the supermarket have affected how she shops for her family of four. To save money on fuel and groceries, she first found the store with the lowest prices closest to her house.
“We have ended up shopping exclusively at Publix,” LeBlanc says. “We have found that it is the most cost-efficient for us. We did end up having to buy less fresh fruit and vegetables because it would put us over our food budget.”
What’s the Inflation Rate for Housing?
Inflation on home prices, rents and other lodging costs surged between 2021 and mid-2023 and remains above pre-pandemic levels. The current housing market is challenging for renters and homeowners alike. A survey by the Center for American Progress found that more than three-quarters of respondents said housing affordability had gotten worse in their community.
Lindsay Keeling, a Ph.D. candidate from Las Cruces, New Mexico, told U.S. News Money that soaring housing costs are leaving her feeling vulnerable.
“Rent has gone up so much over here,” says Keeling, who has a baby and a dog. “I have friends who have a hard time finding places that fit what they need. Our house will be sold and we will be looking, but the places I can afford will be small, in a dangerous part of town.
“Some don’t have adequate heating and cooling. Landlords and property owners are being tighter with people, too, looking for higher credit scores and income,” she says.
How Much Does It Cost to Buy a Car and Pay for Gas?
Talk of lowering gas prices was part of Trump’s 2024 campaign.
“We’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon,” he said at the Economic Club of New York in October.
But with prices hovering around $3.25 a gallon nationally, drivers are still feeling more pain at the pump compared with the pre- pandemic period. Some economists fear Trump’s tariffs could drive prices even higher.
How Did We Analyze This Data?
Most of the charts in this article show annual changes in the Consumer Price Index, a Bureau of Labor Statistics measure of how much American consumers are paying for items like food, shelter and medical care. The larger the percentage increase – also known as inflation – the sharper the price jumps you might be seeing at the cash register.
The Federal Reserve aims to keep the inflation rate at around 2% per year – a rate it says can help strike the right balance between employment and stability in the economy.
Some charts also show average price data for items compiled by the BLS. They give a rough estimate of how much Americans are actually paying for specific products, like eggs or gasoline.
Both the CPI and the average price data represent estimates calculated by the BLS based on a sampling of data. Because they’re averages, they don’t reflect all the geographical and other variations in the price of basic goods. Still, they’re a good temperature check on the nationwide cost of living.
Have a suggestion for the tracker? Any other types of data you’d like to see? You can send questions, comments and suggestions to [email protected].
Erica Sandberg and Elliott Davis Jr. contributed reporting to this article.
