Michigan State basketball vs. Oregon, Big Ten tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

• What: No. 1-seed Michigan State vs. No. 8-seed Oregon, Big Ten tournament quarterfinal

• When: Noon Friday

• Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 84

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 26-5 overall and won the Big Ten outright with a 17-3 conference mark, is ranked No. 6 in the Coaches poll and No. 7 in The Associated Press poll, and is No. 8 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com and No. 10 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. Oregon 24-8 overall, finished the Big Ten regular season at 12-8 and is ranked No. 23 by the AP and is the first team out of the Coaches poll. The Ducks are No. 32 nationally, per Kenpom, and No. 28 in the NET rankings.

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• Betting line: MSU -5.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 732-300 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Oregon — Dana Altman is 779-401 in 36 seasons as an NCAA Division I head coach, including 369-160 in 15 seasons with the Ducks. Before that, he coached at Creighton for 16 seasons, after shorter stints at Kansas State and Marshall and in the juco ranks.

• Series: MSU leads 3-2 all-time. They’ve only played twice since 1988, with MSU winning at the 2022 PK85 tournament in Portland, Oregon and then a month ago, on Feb. 8, at Breslin Center.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 4.7

F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.1

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 12.9

G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 11.6

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.0

Oregon

C (32) Nate Bittle (7-0) 14.1

PF (21) Brandon Angel (6-9) 8.4

SF (5) TJ Bamba (6-5) 10.2

G (9) Keeshawn Barthelemy (6-2) 10.2

G (3) Jackson Shelstad (6-0) 13.3

• MSU update: The Spartans enter the Big Ten tournament as Big Ten champions. Now they’ll try to keep their seven-game winning streak going and win another title. The question with the Spartans is how hungry they’ll be this weekend. They badly wanted the Big Ten championship and spent three months dialed in on it through a 20-game grind. It’s not a question of whether MSU wants to win, but you can’t fake hunger or desperation and if a good opponent has a little more of either of those vibes, it can make the difference. The Big Ten tournament is one of those events where the farther you go in it, the more you’d like to win it (Fans who follow English soccer might compare the Big Ten tournament to the FA Cup.).

MSU enters the tournament healthy and with a lot going for it. The Spartans finished the Big Ten regular season as the league’s No. 1 team in defensive efficiency, 3-point defense, block rate and rebounding on both ends. The Spartans are probably locked into a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, based on bracketology projections, but a couple more wins this weekend might test that. Keep in mind, the Big Ten tournament championship game comes too late to be factored into NCAA tournament seeding, another reason this tournament is very much secondary to the regular season.

• Oregon update: The Ducks beat Indiana on Thursday afternoon in their first game at the Big Ten tournament to advance to the quarterfinal matchup against the Spartans. Oregon hasn’t lost since falling to MSU on Feb. 8 in East Lansing. That was the end of a five-game losing streak for the Ducks. They’ve won eight straight since, including a win at Wisconsin when the Badgers were the hottest team in the Big Ten. Now that title belongs to the Spartans and Ducks. Oregon is projected somewhere around a 5 seed in the NCAA tournament.

MORE: See the Big Ten tournament bracket

• Matchup analysis: It took a great second half by MSU and a herculean effort from Jase Richardson for the Spartans to beat Oregon at home in early February. That 29-point performance was Richardson’s first start — because of illness to Jeremy Fears Jr. that day — and was a real coming-out party for Richardson as MSU’s go-to guy. Both teams have played their best basketball of the season since. MSU dominated the glass (including 14 rebounds by Jaxon Kohler) and shut down the Ducks beyond the 3-point arc after halftime, spearheaded by Jaden Akins’ defense on Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad, who had just four of his 22 points after the break. But the 50-point first half by the Ducks also happened, so they’re capable of being a real problem for MSU offensively. Shelstad has a smoothness and knack for shot-making like few guards in the league. Big man Nate Bittle, who did very little against MSU the first time around, can score inside and out. This is a talented and capable Oregon team that’s no longer traipsing the country, but instead settled down in one spot with hopes of making a statement.

MORE: Couch: What I thought of the All-Big Ten basketball teams and awards and who I chose on my ballot

• Prediction: The Spartans have been so good over the last month, it’s hard to pick against them. But the Big Ten tournament is a different dynamic in terms of motivation and such. Sometimes there’s carryover. Sometimes the best team is content to get some rest and get set for the NCAA tournament. Oregon is playing really well and seems motivated to make a run this week. MSU’s depth, determination and focus has made them different all year. Maybe that’ll be the case in Indianapolis.

• Make it: Oregon 79, MSU 76

MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation

— Graham Couch

Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.