After facing the Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field last weekend, the Yankees will host a division rival tonight for the first time this season. The Blue Jays are off to a middling start this year, with their rotation performing solidly but their lineup looking surprisingly anemic. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who signed a 14-year, $500 million extension earlier this month, is getting on base at a .373 clip but has managed just one home run. Alejandro Kirk, who received a five-year extension of his own this offseason, has a .532 OPS. Perhaps most disappointingly, the team’s prized offseason acquisition, Anthony Santander, is hitting below the Mendoza line.
As the 12-13 Jays head to the Bronx to take on the first-place Yankees (15-10), let’s take a look at the likely pitching matchups for the weekend.
Friday: Carlos Carrasco vs. José Berríos (7:05 pm ET)
Carrasco, who hasn’t posted an ERA+ above league average in a full season since 2018, has predictably struggled this year, posting a 6.53 ERA while allowing more than a hit per inning. Last time out against the Rays, the right-hander allowed four runs in as many innings of work while striking out just one. The 38-year-old’s slider and fastball, his two most commonly thrown pitches, have combined for a -8 run value. Right-handed batters have posted an OPS more than double left-handers against Carrasco, a potential product of small sample size that is nonetheless worth watching with righties Bo Bichette and Guerrero atop the Blue Jays’ lineup.
He’s set to oppose Berríos, the veteran who won 16 games last season. The 31-year-old carries a 5.02 ERA into tonight’s game, a number that’s inflated due to a six-run outing at the hands of the O’s in his first start of year. Since that appearance, he’s allowed 10 runs in 23.2 innings while punching out 19. He earned a quality start last time out, giving up three runs on eight baserunners in six innings while taking a no-decision.
Saturday: Max Fried vs. Kevin Gausman (1:05 pm ET)
After experiencing a rash of rotation injuries in spring training that has extended into the season, Fried has been the Yankees’ saving grace. The prized free-agent acquisition has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a start this year, going 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA. Last time out, after flirting with a no-hitter that was controversially erased by a scoring change, the southpaw finished with a line of no runs and two hits in 7.2 innings. This success has largely been keyed by Fried’s four-seamer, against which opponents are hitting just .140.
He’ll face Gausman, the two-time All-Star in his fourth season in Toronto. After a down year in 2024, Gausman has returned to form, registering a 3.16 ERA through five starts. A key to his success has been control, with the right-hander allowing just six walks in 31.1 innings after permitting 56 free passes in 181 innings in this past season. He’s also removed from his arsenal a sinker that opponents slugged .500 against last year, relying successfully on a four-seamer/splitter/slider mix.
Sunday: Clarke Schmidt vs. Chris Bassitt (1:35 pm ET)
Schmidt is set to make his third start of the year on Sunday. After starting the season on the IL with a shoulder injury, the right-hander has struggled thus far. Last time out in Cleveland, he allowed five runs in four innings and took the loss. However, his expected ERA of 3.26 at least indicates he’s likely pitched to some bad luck in a small sample size. Schmidt did fare better in his first start back on April 16th in the Bronx, when he held the Royals to three runs on four hits in 5.2 innings.
He’ll oppose Bassitt, the 36-year-old coming off a down year of his own. Bassitt has been exceptional so far in 2025, leading MLB with a 1.49 FIP while not yet allowing a homer through five starts. Batters are hitting just .211 against the righty’s sinker, his primary pitch, after hitting .326 against it last season. Most recently, the former Met struck out 10 Braves over five scoreless on April 16th, but the Astros got to him in Houston in his last outing for four runs on seven hits — easily his worst start of the young season.
