Theoretically, the Kansas City Royals should not be a hateable team. They’re not a big-payroll behemoth like most of the AL East. They haven’t won 27 championships like you know who. People in Kansas City are generally pretty nice about their sports teams, and the BBQ is good.
But that doesn’t matter, because the Royals always make me see flames. This, you’ll remember, is the team that bounced the Orioles from the playoffs twice out of their last four trips. Last year—sorry, I’ll make this quick—these two met in the AL Wild Card, KC considered the underdog, and the Orioles got swept, as Baltimore only scored one run in 18 innings against a KC starter tandem of Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo and a shutdown bullpen that let in nothing.
Today, as the ’25 season opens, neither is a perfect team. The Orioles took two of four games in Toronto, then dropped two of three in their home opening series against the Red Sox. They were outpitched and outhit, and look perhaps like a team that should have spent more money on a top-line starter in the offseason.
The Royals have not started off with a bang, either, losing four of their first six games to Cleveland and Milwaukee. This is a team that is substantially similar to last year’s—the whole rotation of Ragans, Lugo, Kris Bubic, Michael Lorenzen, and Michael Wacha is returning. That must be very nice for them, as this outfit finished last season with an MLB second-best 3.55 ERA, and two starters in the Top 5 in AL Cy Young voting, Lugo (second) and Ragans (fourth). The Orioles will face Lugo this time but miss Ragans.
On offense, the Royals do not have the up-and-down depth of the Orioles. After Jonathan India, Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino and the age-defying Salvador Perez at the top of the batting order are . . . a lot of questions. Neither MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, Maikel Garcia or Michael Massey were able to make big statements last season.
This sounds like a series where we won’t see a whole lot of runs scored. Good news on scoring runs, by the way: shortstop Gunnar Henderson is expected to make his return and season debut today, hopefully fully recovered from an intercostal muscle injury. That should be a big step towards supplying more punch to what’s been a hot-and-cold lineup. Now will the pitching comply?
Here are the matchups.
Game 1 – Friday, 7:40 ET
- BAL starter: Dean Kremer (1-0, 8.44 ERA, 6 SO)
- KC starter: Seth Lugo (0-0, 5.40 ERA, 4 SO))
Dean Kremer’s season debut was a bit of a mess, a five-run outing in Toronto over 5.1 innings, but during that start his control got visibly better as it went along and he racked up six strikeouts. The Royals offense has a .625 OPS so far this season, and Kremer take advantage tonight.
The Royals open this series with Seth Lugo, the 2024 runner-up for the AL Cy Young. His numbers last season were no joke: a 16-9 record with a 3.00 ERA and 181 strikeouts in 206.2 innings. Lugo’s first outing this season, on March 29 against the Guardians, wasn’t the best, as he allowed three runs in five innings and walked three. Still, this is a huge test for a thus-far inconsistent Orioles offense.
Game 2 – Saturday, 4:10 ET
- BAL starter: Tomoyuki Sugano (0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1 SO)
- KC starter: Michael Wacha (0-1, 2.25 ERA, 2 SO)
The jury remains out on Tomoyuki Sugano’s MLB prospects. His debut was very weird: the notorious command artist couldn’t find the strike zone in the first inning, settled down after that, then left after four innings with hand cramps. At least while Sugano was commanding his stuff, he looked deceptive. Let’s see how that plays out against a lesser KC offense.
Now in his thirteenth season, the longtime St. Louis Cardinal Michael Wacha has bounced around since, appearing in five different uniforms over the last five seasons. That’s not to say he’s been bad: in each of his last three seasons Wacha has made better than 20 starts and posted a sub-4 ERA. Last season, his first with Kansas City, he was very good, putting up a 3.35 ERA over 29 starts with a 1.19 WHIP and 145 strikeouts in 166.2 innings.
Game 3 – Sunday, 2:10 ET
- BAL starter: Cade Povich (0-0, 6.23 ERA, 8 SO)
- KC starter: Kris Bubic (1.0 ERA, 0.00 ERA, 8 SO)
Youngster Cade Povich had a nice spring, and I think he looks ready to be in this lineup—at least while four injured Orioles starters nurse whatever they’re still nursing. In his season debut, Povich tossed 4.1 innings and struck out eight in a no-decision against the Red Sox. He allowed athree runs on five hits and two walks. As you probably know, the lefty Povich needs to work on his control and not leaving balls in the middle of the plate. He finished last season strong (a final month with a 2.60 ERA and .558 OPS across five starts) and wants to keep that momentum going.
Kris Bubic is third in a nasty trio of starters, and his season debut couldn’t have gone much better. Against a rather hopeless looking Brewers team, he pitched a six-inning shutout, allowing just three hits and two walks and striking out eight. Gulp. The Orioles better have more in the arsenal. Last year Bubic played a relief role for this team and he was good at it, posting a 2.67 ERA in 27 appearances, none of them starts.
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There you have it: a Top-5 AL starting rotation versus the Orioles’ motley crew, while a weaker lineup takes on whatever we’ve got going on right now on offense. It should be interesting to see how this one plays out. Tune in tonight!
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