No.5 Wisconsin (24-8, 13-7 Big Ten) vs. No.4 UCLA (22-9, 13-7 Big Ten)
Date/Time – Friday, March 14, 1:30 p.m.
Arena – Gainbridge Fieldhouse (18,345)
Watch – Big Ten Network (Guy Haberman, Stephen Bardo, Rick Pizzo)
Radio – Badgers Radio Network (Matt Lepay and Brian Butch), Sirius 106 or 195, stream online on iHeartRadio.
Series – UCLA leads 6-2 (UCLA leads 2-0 in neutral sites)
Last Meeting – UCLA won, 85-83, on January 23, 2025, in Los Angeles
Follow Online: The Badgers’ Den
Twitter: @Badger_Blitz
Betting line: Wisconsin -1.0
Projected Starting Five (Wisconsin)
Player to Watch: On only five shot attempts, Winter posted 18 points in Wisconsin’s Thursday win over Northwestern, matching the second-highest output of his career. Winter drew nine fouls, went a career-best 9-for-10 from the line, and added six rebounds in the 70-63 victory.
Projected Starting Five (UCLA)
Player to watch: Earning third-team All-Big Ten honors, Bilodeau leads UCLA in scoring and three-point shooting percentage (41.2 percent, 35-for-85). He has scored in double figures in 23 of 30 games this year, including scoring 16 points on 6-for-10 shooting earlier this season against the Badgers.
This will be the first postseason matchup between the two schools.
The Bruins have won the last six meetings, including neutral wins in the 1995 Maui Invitational and the 2017 Hall of Fame Classic.
With 24 wins, this season already equals the 11th-highest win total in Wisconsin history and the third-highest under Greg Gard. Another win would give the Badgers 25 wins for the third time under Gard and the 11th time in the last 22 seasons.
The Badgers are 16-8 against the top two quadrants of the NET rankings, going 6-7 in Quad 1 and 10-1 in Quad 2. UW is one of nine schools with 16+ Quad 1/2 wins.
Wisconsin is 10-5 away from home, including a mark of 6-5 in true road games and 4-0 in neutral site contests. Over the last two seasons, UW is 9-2 in neutral site games. Only two Major Conference teams have a better winning percentage in neutral site games over the last two seasons: Auburn and 2024 National Champion UConn.
Northwestern shot 37.0 percent from the field Thursday, the Badgers’ lowest by an opponent since holding Nebraska to 33.9 percent shooting on Jan. 26. UW is 10-2 this season when holding teams below 40 percent.
The Badgers finished the game with 10 turnovers against the Wildcats, marking the 20th game with 10 or fewer turnovers this season. UW is 16-4 in those games.
Through games played on March 11, the Bruins ranked No. 23 in the country in scoring defense (65.1 ppg), No. 17 in turnovers forced per game (15.3), and No. 8 in turnover margin (+4.5).
Through March 11, the Bruins ranked No. 8 in the nation in turnover margin (+4.5), having committed 334 turnovers and forced 474 turnovers by the opposition.
Nine of UCLA’s 10 rotation players have totaled more assists than turnovers through 31 games. Clark (87 assists, 35 turnovers) has recorded a team-best 2.5 assist-turnover ratio. Including Clark, the Bruins have three guards with an assist-turnover ratio better than 2.0-to-1 (Dylan Andrews and Johnson).
Johnson has been named a Big Ten All-Defensive Team selection (one of five), currently ranking sixth in the league in steals per game (1.7 spg, 53 steals in 31 games). Johnson, who hails from Milwaukee, earned Pac-12 All-Defensive Team honors as a sophomore in 2023 and junior in 2024.
The Bruins’ bench has outscored the opposition in 22 of 31 games this season (16-6 record in those 22 games). Sophomore Sebastian Mack has played in all 31 games, entering off the bench in 30 games. Mack has averaged 9.8 points and 2.2 rebounds per game, shooting 43.8 percent from the field and 73.8 percent at the free throw stripe.
Before Saturday’s clunker against Penn State, Wisconsin’s last poor defensive effort came at Pauley Pavilion against the Bruins. The Badgers shot 51.0 percent from the field, 15-for-30 from three, and 18-for-21 from the line and lost by two. The reasons were simple: the Badgers committed 13 turnovers, saw the Bruins shoot 50.9 percent, and were picked apart by their ball-screen defense against reserves Sebastian Mack and Aday Mara. That latter fact resulted in 23 fouls as the Badgers were out of position and forced to chase and reach.
Mack scored 19 against the Badgers and hasn’t scored more than 14 since. Mara had 22 and also hasn’t scored more than 14 since playing UW. Crowl and Winter have seemed to be consistently outworked by true centers all season. Mara’s on that list with the Michigan combination of Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, Oregon’s Nate Bittle, Michigan State’s Jaxon Kohler, and Penn State’s Yanic Konan Niederhauser. It’s optimistic to say UW has grown in the department, but the performances against Bittle, Kohler, and Niederhauser have come in the last three weeks. However, those three players are better than Mara.
UCLA has won 11 of its last 14 games and is quietly peaking at the right time. However, the Badgers don’t appear to have the same offensive rhythm as they did the last time these two teams met in Westwood. Furthermore, UW’s stellar defensive performance Thursday comes with the caveat that Northwestern was really beat up with injuries. UCLA hung 93 on USC in the season finale to claim the final double bye.
Initially planning to pick Wisconsin based on the Badgers getting their feet under them with their victory over the Wildcats, I feel UW’s offense won’t be able to crack UCLA’s tough defense.
Worgull’s Prediction: UCLA by 6
Record: 25-7 (23-9 ATS)
Points off Prediction: 267 (8.3 per game)
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