So, what about that Celtic brotherhood?
The Welsh and the Scottish haven’t had much of a grá for Irish rugby in recent seasons.
It’s understandable; 11 Irish wins in a row against the Scots has left quite a few emotional scars, and we’ll rarely miss an opportunity to remind them of that record.
The Welsh beef is a bit more recent. Something about beating them with 13 players, which didn’t age well.
And so, Ireland go to Rome to face Italy this afternoon (live on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player) needing Wales and Scotland to do them a big favour each.
The fine margins of Test rugby would be well summed up by the last week in this Six Nations.
Last Saturday, Simon Easterby’s side were narrow favourites to beat the French and take a huge step towards a Grand Slam and third championship on the trot. By the time England had coasted past Italy 24 hours later, third place seemed more likely.
A lot of things need to go right to satisfy their slim title hopes. First thing first, Ireland have to beat Italy, and ideally with a bonus-point.
Next, Ireland need Wales to do them a favour against England in Cardiff.
A Welsh win or a draw would be ideal, but an England win could also be enough to guarantee Ireland second place in the table, providing Steve Borthwick’s side score fewer than four tries, and stay below Ireland on points difference.
If England win with a bonus-point, Ireland’s hopes of winning the title will be over.
If their championship hopes are still alive after the game in Cardiff, attention then turns to Paris, where France host Scotland, and Ireland will need the visitors to pull off a famous win at the Stade de France.
To illustrate the likelihood of all those things happening, bookmakers are giving odds of 20/1 for Ireland to win the title, an Italian Job that would make Michael Caine blush.
A third-place finish would be a deflating outcome for what had been a largely positive campaign up until France dismantled the Grand Slam bid in the third quarter of last week’s game at the Aviva.
With Ireland coming into this championship off the back of a middling Autumn Nations Series and without Andy Farrell, who is on sabbatical ahead of the British and Irish Lions tour to Australia this summer, Easterby’s stock has risen in his spell as interim coach.
He’s had to keep a lid on an out-half culture war that has turned toxic on social media, but which doesn’t appear to have affected either Sam Prendergast or Jack Crowley’s performances.
The Irish defence coach has also had to deal with speculation surrounding his own future, linked with becoming the next permanent head coach of Wales, after they parted company with Warren Gatland last month.
The frustrations of this campaign will come from an attack that has looked blunt in the 22, and a further deterioration in their discipline, the latter of which has been an issue for more than a year.
While they have cut down on the number of penalties they are conceding, cards remain an issue, with the yellows picked up by Joe McCarthy and Calvin Nash last week against France bringing their tally for the last 15 games to 13 yellows and a red.
In the previous 29 matches, Ireland picked up a total of three sin-bins.
Ireland trained at Stadio Olimpico on Friday
Those periods with 14 players are hurting them badly. In Cardiff, Wales outscored them 15-3 during the 20-minute red card block, while France also hit them for 15 points across both sin-bin periods.
The lack of a cutting edge in attack is also making Ireland a frustrating watch. Their ability to create chances doesn’t appear to be an issue; they are relying less on possession and more on their kicking game to gain territory, and 39 entries to the opposition 22 across four games shows that shift is still generating opportunities.
Taking those chances is the problem, with only Italy scoring fewer tries per 22 entry, while only Scotland have given up more turnovers in the opposition 22.
The most jarring element has been the sight of Irish players being held up over the tryline five times in the last three games.
A continuation of that trend in Rome this afternoon would leave major questions to be answered about Ireland’s attack, taking the Italian defence into account.
It’s been a frustrating campaign for Gonzalo Quesada’s side, who came into this championship off the back of an impressive 2024 where they defeated Scotland and Wales, as well as drawing with France.
It started respectably as they gave Scotland a scare in Edinburgh before beating Wales in Rome. However, the wheels have fallen off their campaign in recent weeks, conceding a combined 120 points in defeats to France and England.
Quesada has reacted to that latest defeat with seven changes to his side, while he dropped his captain Michele Lamaro, Manuel Zuliani coming into the back row to replace him.
Easterby has also made a change to his side which reflects his unhappiness with last week’s defeat to France.
Joe McCarthy is dropped from the starting team following his costly yellow card, replaced by James Ryan, while James Lowe, Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Jack Crowley and Jack Conan also come into the starting team.
Among the replacements are Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray, with the Munster pair set to play the final games of their illustrious Test careers.
Along with Cian Healy, who played his 137th and final Test last week, the trio have won this championship five times each, and while a sixth may be a long shot, there will be huge motivation to send them off in style.
While Ireland need a win, and probably a big win, to stay in the hunt for a top-two finish, assuming the victory as given would be a dangerous thing to do.
Two years ago Ireland were given a real scare by the Italians in Rome, and while the Azzurri have been heavily beaten in their last two games, their attack has shown itself capable of carving open any team in the world.
In Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex they have a centre partnership which is up there with the best in the tournament, while full-back / wing Ange Capuozzo was electric at Twickenham last Sunday.
This Irish team don’t lose consecutive games though. You’d have to back four years for the last time they were beaten back-to-back.
It’s unlikely to be enough to win a championship, and it may not even be enough for second place, but at the very least Ireland should finish their campaign on a high.
Verdict: Ireland to beat Italy, France to win the title
Italy: Tommaso Allan; Ange Capuozzo, Juan Ignacio Brex (capt), Tommaso Menoncello, Monty Ioane; Paolo Garbisi, Martin Page-Relo; Danilo Fischetti, Gianmarco Lucchesi, Simone Ferrari; Dino Lamb, Federico Ruzza; Sebastian Negri, Manuel Zuliani, Lorenzo Cannone.
Replacements: Giacomo Nicotera, Mirco Spagnolo, Giosue Zilocchi, Niccolo Cannone, Michele Lamaro, Ross Vintcent, Stephen Varney, Leonardo Marin.
Ireland: Hugo Keenan; Mack Hansen, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Finlay Bealham; James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Gus McCarthy, Jack Boyle, Tadhg Furlong, Joe McCarthy, Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Sam Prendergast, Bundee Aki.
Referee: Luke Pearce (RFU)
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Watch Italy v Ireland (from 1.15pm) and France v Scotland (from 7.30pm) in the Guinness Six Nations on RTÉ2 and RTÉ Player this Saturday.
Follow a live blog of both games on rte.ie/sport and the RTÉ News app, and listen to live commentary of Italy v Ireland on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1
