Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Featherweight elites Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes will clash TONIGHT (Sat., April 12, 2025) inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., at UFC 314.

Just a couple months ago, Volkanovski’s Featherweight future was looking pretty grim. Sure, he was probably going to receive an instant rematch versus Ilia Topuria, but facing off with Topuria after consecutive knockout losses at age 36?

Volkanovski might as well have rematched a shotgun blast.

Lopes is a much more fallible athlete. That’s not a serious knock on the Brazilian’s abilities; he just isn’t a one-of-a-kind generational talent. He is, however, a remarkably dangerous offensive fighter with more than 30 professional bouts under his belt, perfectly positioned to score the first title fight of his career during the peak of his prime.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Volkanovski vs. Lopes Betting Odds

• Alexander Volkanovski victory: -130
• Alexander Volkanovski via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Alexander Volkanovski via submission: +1800
• Alexander Volkanovski via decision: +200
• Diego Lopes victory: +110
• Diego Lopes via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Diego Lopes via submission: +550
• Diego Lopes via decision: +450
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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How Volkanovski Wins

Volkanovski carved out a position in history as one of the best Featherweights of all time with a well-rounded skill set and the intelligence to make the most of it. The Australian great consistently managed to put his best foot forward and adjust as necessary to his opposition, allowing him to control the flow of the fight.

The question here is what’s the best game plan for Volkanovski? He’s the sharper range striker and better wrestler, but both realms still carry danger. The longer this fight goes, the more Volkanovski’s skill set should shine over Lopes’ explosiveness, so surviving the early going is an obvious goal.

Volkanovski has to be smart with his jab, because Lopes is going to try to fire his overhand across the top ever time, and Volkanovski has a habit of drifting to his left as he jabs. To avoid getting clobbered, feinting often and mixing up the timing will be important. Volkanovski should also be making it a point to really bet behind his left should as he jabs, which should provide some measure of protection. Another interesting option would be to work more from Southpaw. Volkanovski has the skill to deftly jab with his right hand, which would really mess up the timing of Lopes’ cross counter.

I don’t think Volkanovski should wait too long to wrestle here. Lopes is a mauler from the clinch, but he also commits hard to his punches. If Volkanovski can duck beneath one, the takedown should come fairly easily. While I find Lopes’ bottom game very interesting, I don’t think Volkanovski would have an overly difficult time navigating those waters and dropping hammers in the process.

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How Lopes Wins

Lopes has crushing power. He’s a gigantic Featherweight who imposes a physicality advantage rather than a range edge. He loves to trade clubbing shots in close quarters and has excellent timing with intercepting punches, and that jiu-jitsu black belt is always there as a finishing option if his foe is hurt or the fight hits the mat.

Lopes cannot afford to be sloppy here (unless Volkanovski is absolutely shot). He should be taking notes from Ilia Topuria, who successfully walked Volkanovski down and lined up that right hand. Even without the Spanish fighter’s boxing prowess, there are lessons to be learned.

Notably, Lopes should be copying Topuria’s right low kick. Again, Volkanovski tends to drift left or pull back after jabbing, and both those movements can be chopped by a right calf kick. As soon as Volkanovski’s mobility was limited, Topuria’s right hand landed more.

Lopes has the tools and power to replicate that strategy.

Lopes should be looking to shoot as well. Not necessarily to take Volkanovksi down — ask Islam Makhachev, that’s a tall task — but to force Volkanovski into the clinch. Lopes’ dirty boxing is downright deadly, and on the break of a clinch could be the perfect moment to time an uppercut.

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Volkanovski vs. Lopes Prediction

For the third time, we’re forced to pick between the better fighter and younger athlete.

There are too many stats on the side of Lopes here. If Volkanovski is victorious, he’d be the first lighter-weight fighter to capture gold at 36 and the first UFC fighter to win a belt off consecutive losses. All the history and trends in UFC history indicate that Volkanovski is not going to win this, and that’s before considering the thunderous punching power of Lopes.

I’ll frame it another way: at this stage of the game, I believe Lopes to be a better fighter than Brian Ortega was when he challenged Volkanovski for the belt. Meanwhile, “The Great” Aussie has certainly declined since those days. If Lopes lands half as many clean punches as Ortega did in that five-round war, Volkanovski isn’t getting back up.

Prediction: Lopes via knockout

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FEATHERWEIGHT MADNESS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., April 12, 2025, with a high-stakes clash between Featherweight standout, Alexander Volkanovski, and rising contender, Diego Lopes, battling for Ilia Topuria’s vacated Featherweight title in the five-round main event. In UFC 314’s electrifying co-headliner from inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., Lightweight fan-favorite Michael Chandler will face the brash Paddy Pimblett in a five-round co-main event. UFC 314 will also feature a must-watch, bad-blood Featherweight showdown between Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva, alongside another 145-pound clash with Yair Rodriguez taking on promotional newcomer, Patricio Pitbull, and so much more! UFC 314’s start time is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 314 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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