The Nuggets perimeter defense has suffered with Aaron Gordon on the shelf, and that could open the door for an improving Wizards squad.
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Mar 15, 2025 • 15:54 ET • 4 min read
The Washington Wizards picked up their second win in four games last time out in Detroit and will now look to put their solid defense to the test against a slumping Denver Nuggets team.
As they force their opponents inside, my Wizards vs. Nuggets predictions will explain why Washington could watch Denver play right into its hands here.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Saturday, March 15.
Wizards vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet: Washington +12 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Washington Wizards still cannot score the basketball with any kind of efficiency, but the good news is that their defense has at least been average in the month of March.
Now, they’ll potentially get a bit of relief if Aaron Gordon – banged up with an ankle sprain on top of his healing calf injury – isn’t able to play.
Washington is a team that has been heavily predicated around outside shooting, and while that hasn’t worked well all year, it’s actually found a way to raise its numbers in the last two weeks to sit in the middle of the league.
The Denver Nuggets may be down a crucial defender in Gordon, and on top of that, it’s been one of the worst 3-point defenses in the NBA this month in allowing 41% shooting.
Meanwhile, the Wizards’ recipe for success on defense has come in running its opponents off the 3-point line and forcing them inside to shoot at the rim.
There, they have the fifth-best rim defense in the last two weeks to go along with an excellent look against the mid-range and above-average numbers around the arc.
Denver shoots a ton at the rim but has ranked outside the top 10 this month in field goal percentage, and once again, if Gordon is to miss this one, it’s going to look even rougher on that end of the floor.
I’m not outright calling for the Wizards to win this game, but Denver should play right into their hands here as a team focused inside.
With the Nuggets continuing to struggle on the glass, too, Washington shouldn’t be at its usual disadvantage in that department and could make this one a game.
Wizards vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Washington Wizards +12Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 made threes
Jordan Poole Over 18.5 points
The Nuggets have been vulnerable against the 3 this month, but they’ve struggled just as much inside.
For that reason, I want to back a player to score the ball who’s going to be able to get to the rim and also pull up plenty from outside – and that is Jordan Poole.
Poole has begun to cool off a bit in averaging 15 points in his last three games, but the good news is that his volume hasn’t really suffered all that much, even in slightly limited minutes.
I expect this game to be within reach and for Poole to get plenty of runs as he finds more success against a generous defense.
Then, I do think we have to take the man who shoots the three with just about the most frequency on the team, Julian Champagnie.
He’s a guy who can find himself on the short end of the stick in this rotation, but as Denver barrels inside, I anticipate plenty of Wizards forwards will find themselves in foul trouble and open things up for the bench.
He’s taken around four 3-pointers per game in his last four and just went 3-for-5 against a good Detroit Pistons defense.
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Wizards vs Nuggets odds
Wizards vs Nuggets live odds
Wizards vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Washington +15 (-110) | Denver -15 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington (+525) | Denver (-750)
- Over/Under: Over 239.5 (-110) | Under 239.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Wizards vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread had been steadily trickling towards the Wizards but has met resistance right around 12 points.
- The Nuggets have taken on 73% of the bets and 792% of the handle wagered on the spread.
- The total was bouncing between 238.5 and 239.5 before making a recent move to its highest point at 240.5.
- The Over has accounted for 43% of the tickets but 71% of the money.
Wizards vs Nuggets trend
The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 25 of their last 31 games at home (+18.05 Units / 51% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Wizards vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Wizards vs Nuggets
Location Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado Date Saturday, 3-15-2025 Tip-off 9:00 p.m. ET TV MNMT, ALT
Wizards vs Nuggets latest injuries
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